(November 16, 2007) - Judging by the narrowly seesawing after-hours trading in BEA stock Thursday evening, the company didn't exactly convince Wall Street that it's worth the $21 a share it's demanding of an acquirer, having apparently run off Oracle and its $17 offer, then a 25% premium. The stock remained below $17.

But maybe Wall Street will come to a different conclusion after it recovers whatever was lost to the technical glitches in BEA's conference call and really goes through the numbers.

BEA is now square with the government in filing its backdating-delayed financial statements going back over a year - whose absence supposedly accounted for it's being undervalued - and it reported its latest third quarter Thursday, earning $56 million, or 13 cents a share, up 59% year-over-year on revenues of $384.4 million, up 11%.

Analysts had expected BEA to return 13 cents on revenues of only $349 million. BEA congratulated itself that it was able to put the numbers it did on the table despite the "significant distractions" Oracle's hostile bid caused.

Granted third-quarter license fees were $134.8 million, down 1%, but services revenue were $249.6 million, up 18%.

In its valuation of what it's worth BEA is hanging a lot on the fact that it expects revenue this quarter, usually seasonally strong, to range from $420 million-$434 million, up 7%-11% over last year. Estimates put the number at $417 million.

The mid-point of that range would represent non-GAAP earnings per share of 70 cents, BEA CEO Alfred Chuang said, 23% higher than the First Call consensus estimate, which would also represent 43% year-over-year growth.

Chuang said that more interesting than the Q4 guidance was the fact that "We will have achieved a non-GAAP EPS level this fiscal year that exceeds the current First Call mean estimates for next fiscal year. These results demonstrate not only significant progress in our operating profitability, we also believe they will materially impact how investors value BEA."

Guess we'll see.

Q3 cash flow from operating activities was $87.5 million, up 62% and BEA's got $1.2 billion in the bank, which would have lowered what Oracle would actually have paid considerably.

BEA said it considered more than cash flow in coming to its $21 valuation; it wants its growth potential leavened into the equation along with other stuff.

BEA also reported deferred revenues of $388.6 million, up 15% year-over-year.

Its GAAP third-quarter operating margin was 16.7%, compared to 10.8% a year ago.

Its non-GAAP operating income was $96.2 million, up 33% with a non-GAAP operating margin of 25% up four points.

Its third quarter non-GAAP net was $78.9 million, up 33% or 19 cents a share.

BEA attributed its Q3 performance to its AquaLogic products, which represented 27% of license revenue. It said its AquaLogic User Interaction had its strongest quarter ever, and AquaLogic Enterprise Registry and Repository, important to SOA management and governance, reportedly sustained the momentum that began in Q2.

The WebLogic Communication Platform also reportedly delivered its strongest quarter ever. BEA has seeded WebLogic Server Virtualization Edition in key accounts and says it got referenceable results. These products, along with Project Genesis for the next generation of dynamic business applications, are supposed to give BEA growth opportunities.

BEA has scheduled its annual shareholders meeting for February 14. Its largest shareholder Carl Icahn may have something to say about that.